8.8 Million more women than men voted in 2004. This is just a simple statistic from the census bureau, but could this fact be a vital indicator of how the 2012 presidential elections will be played out? Women are generally … Continue reading
Economics of Swing States and the General Election
Since the United States continues to use the practice of an electoral college to decide the presidency this 2012 Presidential election is going to boil down to which candidate can secure the all important 2012 swing state wins. Since these … Continue reading
Will Walker Recall Affect the General Election?
Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker has managed to survive the hard fought recall election on Tuesday marking the first time an elected official has survived a recall. While the majority of polling results predicted Walker’s win the looming question that has … Continue reading
Romney favorability increases, but still lags behind Obama
A recent CNN poll has found that Mitt Romney’s favorable ratings have been increasing since the end of the tumultuous GOP primary run. While Romney is gaining steam throughout several important voting groups essential to clenching the 2012 presidential election, … Continue reading
Obama’s Marriage Equality Endorsement Shifts the Views of African Americans
A recent poll conducted by Public Policy Polling in Maryland has discovered that African Americans opinions concerning same-sex marriage has shifted significantly after President Obama made his historic announcement stating his belief that same-sex couples should have the right to … Continue reading
Obama Holds Big Lead Amongst Latinos
With 6 months remaining before the 2012 presidential election every political poll is now focusing on the 2012 swing state essential voters which include the minority group that has at the heart of speculation this election cycle the Hispanic vote. … Continue reading
Most Important Issues this Election have Voters Split
Political polls are showing an the race growing more contentious and closer as the election begins to prepare for the summer of negative ad campaigns and public donations. Perhaps, some of the reasoning behind the close presidential polling is because most American’s are split on how well the presidential candidates can handle the biggest three economic issues. Recent poll results show that the top three issues for the 2012 presidential election are over the issues of health care cost, deficit and unemployment. When the poll concerning these three issues were released the majority of people saw Obama as being the favorite on healthcare, Romney on the issue of the deficit and then a split over the two presidential candidates on unemployment.
While these three issues were placed on the counter as being important with both Democrats and Republicans there are a plethora of other major issues that rank in utmost importance for the 2012 general election. Many of these include social issues such as same-sex marriage, higher education, and economic growth. While public opinion polls are likely to shift throughout the long election season, especially as they grow weary of the negative TV and web campaign ads. Keeping up on the latest electoral map polls and observing how key swing states shift can be indicative of what is most important to voters on certain political issues. Shifting from blue to red or vice versa may be indicative of who they perceive as being the most capable candidate for the job.
Recent Political Ads are Focusing on the Economy
The top political headlines this week have all been focused on President Obama’s public support of same-sex marriage, but as recent political polls reveal the top concern in the 2012 election is the economy. Vice President Joe Biden, has begun campaigning this week in eastern Ohio and both the Democratic and Republican parties are attacking their opponents economic record to win over the “blue collar” vote.
The latest presidential campaign ads are casting negative light over their opponents economic record. Mitt Romney, has been attacking the national deficit, while President Obama’s latest attack ad centers on Romney’s time at Bain Capital, and focusing on the auto bailout which is largely popular in 2012 swing states like Ohio and Michigan. These recent TV and web ads may be evident of other recent poll results suggesting that individuals top priority is still the economy, even if they happen to be socially conservative.
In the wake of this week’s earlier endorsement of same-sex marriage, analysts were trying to see how this would effect other minority groups who are typically seen as socially conservative. This includes looking at Hispanic voters a vital voting block in the 2012 Presidential election. Latino voters are often portrayed as being staunchly socially conservative, however, this may not be accurate to paint the Hispanic community this way. Hispanics along with every other demographic are becoming less polarized on the issue of same-sex marriage. Even members of the Latino community who are strongly opposed to gay marriage find this issue secondary to the more important issues of immigration, and job security. Obama has maintained a large lead over Romney in regards to the Latino vote and his stance on gay marriage is unlikely to change that. To sway the key demographics in the swing state elections both candidates are going to have to play to their economic strong points, or the opponents weaknesses.
Will the 2012 Electoral Maps Shift Much After Obama’s Endorsement?
If you have been following the 2012 presidential election, you know that the race is going to come down to a select few swing states that will hold the most weight in the election. 2012 electoral vote maps have President Obama starting out with a large lead over contender Mitt Romney with about 253 strong electoral votes for Obama and 170 for Romney. The marathon race to the White House however is long and circumstances can change quickly. President Obama made a monumental move on Wednesday, becoming the first president to endorse same-sex marriage. This decision however may not play an important role in securing the important 2012 swing state votes that are necessary to reach the 270 votes needed secure the election. In the latest discussions surrounding Obama’s endorsement of same sex marriage many are speculating how it will affect not the young voters, moderate voters but instead it focuses on another voting block African American voters. Many African American voters are staunch opponents of same-sex marriage, however, opposition to same-sex marriage has dropped by 20 points since 2008 and are following basic trends seen in other recent polls that is that people across all demographics are becoming more accepting or at least less polarized over the issue of gay marriage. Even if the African American community still opposed gay marriage it is very unlikely they will shift party lines. Reverend Bryant a pastor in Baltimore Maryland is steadfast in his opposition to gay marriage but stated that given the options of Romney vs. Obama he would still vote for Obama. He also stated “This is not an issue that I am going to walk away from him on”. Gay rights issues simply aren’t that big of an issue for African American’s or other swing voters in general. In a recent political poll, two-thirds of independent voters the most important votes in this election said that gay rights wasn’t a primary concern for them this election. Even with Latino voters who are portrayed as having firm anti-gay marriage stance were polled at only 26% opposition with much more supporting civil unions or gay marriage. Electoral prediction maps of the southwest and mid-Atlantic may not be as influenced by Obama’s statement as media speculation would have you believe, instead moderate and independent voters in these regions will vote about other issues such as immigration, economy, and who they believe best represents them.
How Will Obama’s Same-Sex Marriage Endorsement Affect the 2012 Presidential Election?
News publications and social media outlets seemed to explode yesterday as President Obama made the announcement during an exclusive ABC interview that after personal reflection he supports same-sex marriage. Now the analysis begins by Republican and Democrats as to whether this will help or harm President Obama’s campaign for re-election in the 2012 Presidential Election.
Recent political polls show that support of same-sex marriage has been on the rise and now most recent poll results indicate that a majority of American’s are in favor of same-sex marriage. Where there was once a strong polarization about the issue of same-sex marriage latest finding indicate that this gap is narrowing. While many in the younger generation are supporters of same-sex marriage opinions of the baby boomer are also shifting to be more accepting of gay marriage. Even though there is a broader acceptance over a once highly polarizing issue the decision to publicly announce acceptance of gay marriage may have less of an impact as the media would have you believe. In almost all of the 2012 Romney vs. Obama polls their respective bases are already firmly behind them leaving the candidates to fight for the essential independent voters, especially in the 2012 swing states. However, when looking at what issues are most important to independent voters around two-thirds said that a candidates position on gay marriage wasn’t important to them.
In fact both candidates stated that they won’t push this social issue much further and plan to focus on jobs and the economy. The announcement did create quite a stir though especially through popular social media outlets like Facebook and twitter. Obtaining over 7,000 tweets per minute the announcement was trending worldwide and sparking interest from the youth vote who has become more disinterested since 2008. Whether the announcement has a large political impact, boosts Obama’s approval ratings or has virtually none at all won’t be known until we all cast our ballots in November. What one thing is for certain is the endorsement as well as same-sex marriage debates will infiltrate our election news headlines, political polls and conversation until then.
